Who Leads the NBA Defensive Player of the Year Odds and Who Could Surprise?

As I sit here scrolling through the latest NBA defensive highlights, I can’t help but think about how much the Defensive Player of the Year conversation has shifted this season. It’s not just about blocks or steals anymore—it’s about impact, leadership, and that almost intangible ability to read the game before it unfolds. I remember watching players like Rudy Gobert in his prime, thinking, "That’s what a defensive anchor looks like." But this year? The landscape feels different, and I’m genuinely excited to break it down. Let’s talk about who’s leading the odds right now and who might just sneak up and surprise everyone.

Right now, if you look at the betting odds, Evan Mobley of the Cleveland Cavaliers is sitting pretty at the top with around +280 odds. And honestly, it’s not hard to see why. At just 22 years old, his defensive instincts are off the charts. He’s averaging 1.8 blocks and 1.1 steals per game, but those numbers don’t even tell the full story. Watch him switch onto guards or disrupt pick-and-rolls—it’s like he’s playing chess while everyone else is stuck in checkers. I’ve always believed that great defenders make their teammates better, and Mobley does exactly that. Jarrett Allen benefits massively from his presence, and the Cavs’ defensive rating of 106.3 when they’re on the court together is just insane. But here’s the thing: Mobley isn’t just a stat-stuffer. He’s evolving, and it reminds me of something I once heard from a young player reflecting on growth: "And how they handle it on that side, I feel like it’ll help me as a player as well, progressing sa pro na what I can see sa floor, what I expect sa mga players, and of course, sa sarili ko." That mindset—seeing the floor, anticipating moves, and self-improvement—is exactly what separates good defenders from great ones. Mobley embodies that, and I think he’s the frontrunner for a reason.

But let’s not forget about the veterans. Rudy Gobert is still in the mix with +450 odds, and his impact on the Timberwolves’ defense can’t be overstated. Minnesota has the best defensive rating in the league at 104.7, and Gobert is the anchor. He’s pulling down 12.9 rebounds per game and altering countless shots—even if he doesn’t block them, his mere presence forces offenses to rethink their strategies. I’ve always been a fan of his disciplined approach, but I’ll admit, sometimes I wonder if voters are getting a little tired of handing him the award. He’s won it three times already, and while he’s still dominant, the narrative might be shifting toward new blood. Then there’s Bam Adebayo, sitting at +600. Bam is the heart of Miami’s defense—versatile, vocal, and relentless. He guards one through five, and his ability to switch onto perimeter players is something Gobert can’t match. I remember watching him in the playoffs last year, and he was everywhere. The Heat’s defensive schemes rely so heavily on his IQ and mobility, and if he can stay healthy, he’s a dark horse who could easily climb the odds.

Now, for the surprises. This is where it gets fun for me because I love spotting under-the-radar talent. First up: Victor Wembanyama. Yeah, I know he’s a rookie, and the Spurs are struggling, but his defensive potential is ridiculous. He’s already averaging 3.2 blocks per game—leading the league—and his 7-foot-4 frame with guard-like mobility is something we’ve never seen before. The odds have him at +1200, which feels too low in my opinion. I’ve watched him disrupt entire offenses single-handedly, and if San Antonio can string together some wins, voters might take notice. Another surprise candidate? Jalen Suggs. The Orlando Magic have quietly built one of the best young defensive teams, and Suggs is at the center of it. His on-ball pressure is relentless; he’s averaging 1.6 steals and often shuts down the opposing team’s best guard. At +2000 odds, he’s a long shot, but I’ve seen crazier things happen. Remember when Marcus Smart won in 2022? Voters sometimes reward that gritty, underdog mentality, and Suggs has it in spades.

What about the guys who aren’t getting enough love? I’ve got to mention Herb Jones. The Pelicans’ wing defender is arguably the best perimeter stopper in the league, but his odds are way down at +3500. That’s just disrespectful. He’s holding opponents to 38% shooting when he’s the primary defender, and his length and anticipation are elite. I’ve always valued players who don’t need flashy stats to make an impact, and Jones is exactly that. Then there’s Anthony Davis, who’s been a bit overlooked this season despite putting up monster numbers—2.4 blocks and 1.2 steals per game. The Lakers’ overall defensive struggles might be hurting his case, but individually, he’s still a force. I’d argue that if L.A. turns things around, Davis could easily jump into the top three.

As I wrap this up, I keep coming back to that idea of progression and self-awareness—the notion that great defense isn’t just about physical tools but mental growth. That quote I mentioned earlier resonates because it’s about seeing the game differently, anticipating what’s coming, and constantly improving. To me, that’s why Mobley feels like the rightful favorite this year, but I wouldn’t sleep on the surprises. Wembanyama could redefine the award in the coming years, and guys like Suggs or Jones might just steal the spotlight when we least expect it. In the end, the Defensive Player of the Year race isn’t just about who has the best numbers; it’s about who changes the game. And this season, that conversation is more open than ever.