Looking Back at the 2015 NBA Draft: Biggest Steals and Surprising Busts

Looking back at the 2015 NBA Draft feels like revisiting a time capsule of what-could-have-beens and unexpected triumphs. I've spent years analyzing draft classes, and this particular one stands out not just for its top-tier talent but for how wildly unpredictable player development turned out to be. The first round gave us Karl-Anthony Towns and Devin Booker, but the real drama unfolded in the selections that followed—where franchises either struck gold or watched their investments evaporate. What fascinates me most is how certain players dramatically outperformed their draft positions while highly-touted prospects faded into obscurity.

When I first saw the draft board that night, I remember thinking Nikola Jokic at 41st overall was just another international stash pick. Nobody could have predicted he'd become a two-time MVP and the centerpiece of Denver's championship core. His basketball IQ is simply off the charts—the kind of player who makes everyone around him better in ways that don't always show up in traditional stats. Meanwhile, Montrezl Harrell at 32nd overall became an energy big who impacted games through sheer force of will, reminding me that sometimes the most valuable players aren't the ones with the prettiest jump shots. On the flip side, I can't help but wince thinking about Emmanuel Mudiay going seventh overall. His athleticism seemed promising, but the shooting never developed, and he never quite figured out how to run an offense efficiently.

The middle of the first round contained what I consider the draft's true pivot points. Justise Winslow at 10th overall never developed the offensive consistency Miami needed, while Kelly Oubre Jr. at 15th took years to find his footing as a reliable two-way wing. What's interesting is how blocking ability—a skill often overlooked in draft evaluations—proved telling for certain players. While we're talking about different sports entirely, the principle translates: when you look at volleyball statistics where a player ranked fifth with 0.51 blocks per set, that kind of defensive impact has parallels to basketball rim protection. In the NBA context, Willie Cauley-Stein went sixth overall primarily for his shot-blocking but never developed the defensive awareness to match his physical tools, whereas Larry Nance Jr. at 27th overall became a much more versatile and impactful defender despite less hype.

What strikes me about analyzing this draft class years later is how difficult projecting professional success truly is. My personal theory is that work ethic and adaptability matter more than raw athletic measurements, which explains why second-round picks like Josh Richardson at 40th overall outperformed lottery selections. Richardson developed into a legitimate 3-and-D wing through relentless work on his jump shot, while higher-drafted players like Mario Hezonja never adjusted to the NBA's speed and physicality. The Knicks taking Kristaps Porzingis at fourth overall was initially mocked, but he quickly silenced critics before injuries derailed his trajectory. That's another thing I've learned watching these players—health luck plays a bigger role in career outcomes than analysts like to admit.

The real tragedy of this draft class, in my opinion, was Jahlil Okafor going third overall. His post skills were beautiful to watch in college, but the NBA had already moved toward spacing and switchable bigs. I remember watching his rookie season and thinking his footwork in the paint was genuinely special, but his inability to defend in space made him unplayable in critical moments. Meanwhile, Norman Powell at 46th overall developed into exactly the kind of three-level scorer every contender needs, proving that draft position means very little once players actually hit the court. Delon Wright at 20th overall became another underrated selection—a lengthy guard who impacted games without needing high usage rates.

Reflecting on these career arcs eight years later, the 2015 class teaches us that team development systems matter as much as raw talent. The Spurs drafting Kyle Anderson at 30th overall and slowly developing him into a starting-caliber player demonstrates how organizations can maximize specific skill sets. Meanwhile, the Suns deserve credit for Devin Booker's development, though I'd argue they got somewhat lucky he fell to 13th given how obvious his scoring talent appears in retrospect. The draft's biggest lesson might be that we overvalue certainty in prospects—the players who succeeded often had clear growth trajectories but required patience from their organizations.

Ultimately, the 2015 NBA Draft reminds me why basketball remains beautifully unpredictable. Franchises that nailed their late picks built sustainable success, while those who missed on lottery selections set their timelines back years. The contrast between steals and busts isn't just about individual performance—it's about how players fit evolving league trends and organizational needs. What looked like reaches at the time sometimes proved brilliant, while consensus picks occasionally collapsed under the weight of expectations. If there's one thing I've taken from studying this draft class, it's that humility in evaluation serves everyone better—from front offices to analysts like myself. The next generational talent might be hiding in plain sight, waiting for the right system and opportunity to flourish.